【文献分享】Model-based evaluation提供了数据和代码

介绍

艾滋病毒治疗方法的开发是全球卫生工作的重点，艾滋病毒治疗的目标产品概况（TPP）指导研究工作。我们使用了一个根据荷兰男男性行为者（MSM）数据校准的数学模型，评估了一种有效的治疗方法是否有助于结束艾滋病毒的流行。在TPP之后，我们评估了两种情况：(i)艾滋病毒缓解，即在没有持续抗逆转录病毒治疗（ART）的情况下，病毒在个体中受到抑制，但可能反弹；（ii）艾滋病毒根除，其目的是完全从个体中清除病毒。在这里，我们表明，与没有治愈的情况相比，持续的艾滋病毒缓解（没有反弹）或根除艾滋病毒可以减少新的艾滋病毒感染。相比之下，如果不密切监测反弹的情况，艾滋病毒的短暂缓解和反弹的风险可能会增加新的感染，从而潜在地破坏艾滋病毒控制的努力。我们的研究结果强调了治愈特征在最大限度地提高公共卫生治疗效益方面的关键作用，并强调了将艾滋病毒治愈研究与公共卫生目标结合起来以结束艾滋病毒流行的必要性。

The development of an HIV cure is a global health priority, with the target product profile (TPP) for an HIV cure guiding research efforts. Using a mathematical model calibrated to data from men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Netherlands, we assessed whether an effective cure could help end the HIV epidemic. Following the TPP, we evaluated two scenarios: (i) HIV remission, where the virus is suppressed in an individual without ongoing antiretroviral therapy (ART) but may rebound, and (ii) HIV eradication, which aims to completely remove the virus from the individual. Here, we show that sustained HIV remission (without rebound) or HIV eradication could reduce new HIV infections compared to a scenario without a cure. In contrast, transient HIV remission with a risk of rebound could increase new infections if rebounds are not closely monitored, potentially undermining HIV control efforts. Our findings emphasize the critical role of cure characteristics in maximizing cure benefits for public health and highlight the need to align HIV cure research with public health objectives to end the HIV epidemic.

代码

参考

• https://github.com/alfredodebellis/HIVcure_rev/tree/main
• Model-based evaluation of the impact of a potential HIV cure on HIV transmission dynamics